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The Next Economic Slowdown and the Housing Market


All of us tuned into the news – both national and international – understand that the bubble of economic growth we’ve seen since the last recession could pop. Almost daily we see stories covering political tension, concerns over trade policy and stock market fluctuations both in the United States and abroad.

Many of these stories have those of us involved in real estate wondering what it will mean for our clients and the housing market. We are sure consumers have the same concerns when considering buying or selling a home in a time of uncertainty; especially since the housing market played a big role in the last economic downturn.

However, the housing market has corrected itself over the past few years. Gone are the days of “creative financing,” like interest-only or no-income-verification loans. So what will trigger the next slowdown and when could we expect it?

A blog post from Keeping Current Matters covers this topic. They cite a special report released by Pulsenomics, an independent research firm, who recently surveyed economists, investment strategists, and market analysts about market conditions and what to expect. The majority of those surveyed believe a recession could happen sometime in 2020 (50 percent) or 2021 (35 percent).

And, the triggers:

  1. Trade Policy
  2. Stock Market Correction
  3. Geopolitical Crisis

According to the survey, a housing slowdown was ranked number 9 on the list of potential causes. Those surveyed also suggested that home prices would continue to appreciate over the next few years at a moderate pace.

What to take away from this? There is no reason to panic if you are thinking of buying or selling a home. The best thing you can do is sit down with a lender or financial planner, and real estate professional to weigh your options.


Photo credit: Housing Market by Nick Youngson CC BY-SA 3.0 Alpha Stock Images.